Posted: 31 Dec 2010 03:16 AM PST

On Wednesday, Youssoufou Bamba, the Ivory Coast's newly minted Ambassador to the United Nations, warned that his country was "on the brink of genocide." Bamba, who was appointed by Alassane Outtara, the internationally recognized victor in the country's recent elections, voiced concern over massive human rights violations in recent weeks. (The BBC offers an excellent summary of the post-election crisis here.)
Should Bamba's statement be taken at face value? The signs are certainly concerning. Last week, the UN deputy human rights commissioner reported the deaths of nearly 200 Outtara supporters in the post-election violence, as well as many cases of arrest, detention, and torture. This is just the tip of the iceberg, as the UN has been prevented from investigating many serious allegations of human rights abuses. In one example, the UN Operation in Cote d'Ivoire was blocked from investigating a possible mass execution site north of Abidjan.
Senior UN officials have expressed concern over "incitement to hatred and violence" through the national radio and television and some private newspapers. Bamba noted that some houses have been marked according to their residents' ethnic background, a claim echoed by UN officials. Gbagbo has told the UN to leave and his youth minister, Charles Blé Goudé, has warned ECOWAS not to intervene. In his chilling words:

'They should prepare themselves very well because we are thinking about totally liberating our country, and soon I will launch the final assault.'

The forced migration dimension of the story leaves little doubt about the gravity of the situation. On Tuesday, UNHCR reported that 19,000 Ivorians had fled to Liberia. The refugees, largely women and children, are primarily supporters of Outtara but also include some pro-Gbagbo; all sides fear the consequences of a civil war. Most come from western Ivory Coast, a region already known for lawlessness and severe sexual violence prior to the election. While UNHCR has provisions for just over 10,000 additional refugees, humanitarian needs may soon eclipse their capacity.
In the new year, the European Union will tighten sanctions against Gbagbo and his supporters. As indicated in Diane's post yesterday, International Criminal Court Prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo has warned that "leaders who are planning violence will end up in the Hague," a call welcomed by Outtara, who has invited an ICC investigation. More to the point, ECOWAS has given Gbagbo a deadline of January 3 to step down or face forcible removal. One can only hope that these international efforts will be sufficient to pull the Ivory Coast back from the brink.

'Nuff said

Posted: 31 Dec 2010 02:00 AM PST

(Taking context-optional note of thought-provoking quotes)

So should we, perhaps, be content with the virtual moratorium on nuclear testing?
No, because commitments that are not legally binding can easily be violated.

-- Mikhail Gorbachev, the last President of the Soviet Union and winner of the 1990 Nobel Peace Prize. These 2 sentences from Gorbachev's New York Times op-ed pithily point out the importance of treaties, on much the same reasoning as in a prior post by yours truly. Gorbachev's objective? He begins by welcoming the just-before-Christmas approval by the U.S. Senate of the New Start disarmament treaty (prior posts), which Russia's expected to ratify next month. Then he moves quickly to his main goal: secure U.S. ratification as well of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. Russia and 34 others of the 44 "nuclear technology holder states" have ratified. The United States is among the holdouts, the Senate having refused to give its advice and consent in 1999. U.S. approval of CTBT would break the logjam, Gorbachev argues, and so make way for "the next step to a world free of nuclear weapons"-- a stated goal of the current American President and many who have preceded him.

On December 31

Posted: 31 Dec 2010 12:04 AM PST

On this day in ...
... 1980 (30 years ago today), Radio Tehran threatened that 52 American hostages could face execution. As posted (and see here), the hostages had been seized during the takeover of the U.S. embassy on November 4, 1979. (credit for 2004 photo of defaced U.S. seal at the former embassy building) Earlier that same year, revolutionaries had ousted Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, who'd been the Shah of Iran since 1941. On this same day 3 years earlier, in 1977, President Jimmy Carter had given a New Year's toast in Tehran, "reiterating American support" for the shah, "and calling him 'an island of stability' in the troubled region." The hostages would be released the following month, minutes after Ronald Reagan was sworn in as Carter's successor.

(Prior December 31 posts are here, here, and here.)

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